Our current, federal entitlement programs are going broke (Medicare and Social Security are at the top of the list). Demand for these resources will spike over then next 3 decades as tens of millions of baby boomer's reach retirement age. Health insurance is rising rapidly, to the point that employers have to seriously consider this cost as they decide whether or not to hire an employee. Our national debt is skyrocketing, and tax increases are in quick pursuit. Our domestic economy is waning, unemployment is high, we are clearly losing ground (and clout) as a world economic power, and there isn't a clearly defined path back to our pre-recession comfort zone.
Health care demand and costs are on a scary trajectory.
The number of retirees will increase rapidly over the next 10-30 years. In 2030, it's estimated that we will have 58 million seniors between ages 66 and 84.
The top five causes of death (in year 2002) in people 65 and over are:
- Heart Disease (32%)
- Chronic lower respiratory disease (6%)
- Cancer (21%)
- Stroke (8%)
- Diabetes (3%)
Most of these diseases eventually kill, but only after very long and expensive treatments.
Arthritis and conditions related to arthritis are the leading cause of disability. Currently, 21% (or 46 million) Americans suffer from arthritis, and by 2030, "40 percent of American adults will suffer from some form of arthritic disease".
Are boomer's prepared to pay for this expensive health care? Is Medicare able to absorb these costs?
The answer appears to be NO, and NO. We've heard time and again that we aren't saving enough for retirement. John Cunniff in ABC News lays it out clearly: When we can't afford to maintain both our lifestyle and savings, we choose lifestyle, hoping that it will all work out in the end.
As for Medicare and Social Security--forget it.
So, not too many years from now millions of people are going to need expensive health care and won't be able to afford it! What are we going to do? Some will say screw 'em, it's their own fault. But as a compassionate society, we're not good at letting people suffer.
Unless a major shift in our lifestyles is forthcoming, and we start saving adequately for retirement prior to buying iPads, iPhones, recreational vehicles, and expensive cars, we'll keep digging ourselves into debt until something breaks and reality finally trumps dreams and politics. Since near term change is unlikely, I can't see how public health services can be avoided.
You’re going way too easy on Obama. The biggest failure of the Obama presidency is likely to be his failure to capitalize on the momentum he had post election to reform our healthcare system rather than just add to the ballooning and unsustainable entitlements. He could have brought dems along with the promise of expanded coverage to all while reforming the payment, tax and incentive problems currently baked into the system that drive the excessive costs—something republicans could have supported. Instead he has lied embarrassingly to the public about the cost of the plan and is leaving the real problem for future generations. It will be many years before either party will dare to tackle the Medicare/Medicaid mess again.
ReplyDelete@Anonymous
ReplyDeleteI can't argue with your analysis--you're absolutely right that Obama's handling of, and his outcome for healthcare reform is a huge disappointment.
I wasn't really trying to go easy on Obama; I was just looking at the future escalation of demand compared to preparedness to pay for the services. My base assumption is that regardless of cost saving measures implemented today, future demand and costs will be greater than available resources to pay for services.
Politically Obama failed himself, and substantively he failed us. Certainly, if he had followed the path you described we would at least have a chance to avoid the future worst case scenario.